The AI job threat: Two reports, two futures
Two heavyweight reports on AI and jobs just dropped. They reach opposite conclusions.
Two heavyweight reports on AI and jobs just dropped. They reach opposite conclusions.
Which one should lawyers believe?
The debate
Allie K. Miller broke down both reports in her newsletter. Here’s the short version:
The Citrini Report (doomer view): AI will cause intense disruption by 2028. White-collar workers face the biggest risk. Institutions won’t adapt fast enough.
The Citadel Report (grounded view): The adoption curve is slower than the hype suggests. Current labor data doesn’t show mass displacement. Markets and governments will adjust.
Where they agree
Both reports acknowledge:
AI will change the composition of work
The infrastructure build-out is massive (~$650B, ~2,800 planned data centers)
Compute and energy constraints limit how fast change can happen
New industries will emerge, just as they did after the internet
So it’s not a question of whether change is coming. It’s a question of how fast.
The insight most people miss
Miller points out something neither report addresses: AI self-embedding.
Most analysts focus on AI getting smarter. But what happens when AI accelerates its own adoption into enterprise systems?
If that takes off, the “slow adoption curve” assumption—the foundation of the optimistic case—breaks down.
What to do (regardless of which view you hold)
Use AI seriously, not casually—build real workflows
Diversify income and skills; don’t rely on a single knowledge-work role
Get good at what AI does poorly: judgment, relationships, navigating ambiguity
Reduce fixed costs and build a financial buffer
Watch infrastructure investment as a leading indicator
If you lean “doomer”
Learn AI at an operational level—become the person who deploys it
Stress-test your finances against possible income disruption
Reconsider career bets in pure knowledge work
If you lean “grounded”
Stay invested; panic-selling into AI fear may be the wrong move
Lean into enterprise AI adoption now—early movers get a real edge
Watch adoption data closely; if daily AI use at work spikes, revisit your assumptions
Bottom line
Nobody knows exactly how fast AI will reshape legal work. But waiting for certainty is a losing strategy.
The lawyers who thrive won’t be the ones who picked the “right” prediction. They’ll be the ones who started building AI skills now—and kept adapting as things changed.
;-)
Ernie
P.S. If you want to build those AI skills alongside other solo and small firm lawyers, check out my AI Workshop for Lawyers. We meet weekly to share what’s actually working.